Predictive Models of Development Teams and the Systems they Build

Robert Smallshire (Sixty North)

Lightning talk - in English

Approved_talk approved

In 1968 Melvin Conway pointed out a seemingly inevitable symmetry between organisations and the software systems they construct. Organisations today are more fluid than 40 years ago, with short developer tenure, and frequent migration of individuals between projects and employers.  In this slot we’ll examine - and perhaps collect - data on the tenure and productivity of programmers and use this to gain insight into  codebases, by simulating their growth with simple stochastic models.  From such models, we can make important predictions about the maintainability and long-term viability of software systems, with implications for how we approach software design, documentation and how we assemble teams.

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